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Retail has held up better than many expected in the post-pandemic era, but the next 12–18 months will test how robust that strength really is. The cooling labor market, rising consumer debt, and looming tariff-driven inflation pose real risks. Yet even in that more hostile environment, retail real estate possesses structural advantages—diversified tenant demand, constrained supply, and adaptability—that should allow it to endure.

  1. A Moderating Labor Market, Not a Collapse

    The labor market is indeed decelerating. Job openings are down, and wage growth has slowed relative to last year. Still, the unemployment rate stayed at 3.8 % in August 2025, according to BLS data, which continues to provide some support to consumer income.

    In retail real estate, this means spending may soften—but it’s not collapsing. Centers anchored by essential services, grocers, and discount-oriented tenants stand to fare relatively better when discretionary budgets tighten. Unless unemployment spikes significantly, many tenants should maintain enough liquidity to service rent payments.

  2. Rising Consumer Debt, But Shifting Spending Behavior

    With credit card debt reaching $1.21 trillion as of mid-2025, marking one of the highest levels on record, consumers are clearly feeling pinched.  Still, the story isn’t about collapse—it’s about adaptation. Consumers are reprioritizing purchases: fewer luxury indulgences, more value buys, and a cautious approach to non-essential categories. That behavior favors value-format retailers, QSRs, dollar chains, and discounters—tenants that often anchor resilience in community shopping centers.

  3. Tariff-Driven Inflation Will Stretch Margins, Not Break Demand

    With the prospect of new or reinstated tariffs in 2026, inflation pressures may intensify again, especially in goods-oriented retail categories. That said, many retailers have already built buffer pricing flexibility. Retailers will pass on some of this cost to consumers, which will be a challenge to many households but also a boost to retailers that can maintain value oriented pricing, like those in Big V’s power center portfolio.

    From a property standpoint, moderate inflation can support nominal topline growth (i.e., reported sales in dollar terms) even if volumes are flat. If throughput doesn’t collapse, sales-per-square-foot can remain stable or even tick upward, preserving rent-to-sales ratios in many retail leases.

  4. Supply Discipline: The Structural Foundation

    One of retail’s protective features is supply constraint. As of Q1 2025, the national retail vacancy rate stood at just 4.2 %, up only modestly year-over-year and still near historic lows. In many markets, vacancy for community and neighborhood centers is even lower—often in the 3–5 % band according to recent reports from CBRE.

    Because speculative retail construction remains limited (often measured in single-digit millions of square feet across markets), landlords retain pricing power even if tenant demand softens. With very little competing new stock, even modest leasing activity can help stabilize occupancy and slow rent erosion.

  5. Tenant Diversity, Efficiency & Strategic Adaptation

    Retailers today are leaner and more strategic. Many operate with just-in-time inventory, agile pricing engines, and stronger online/offline integration. That helps them respond quickly to shifts in demand.

    Additionally, tenant demand is broad. Grocery, fitness, medical, pet services, wellness, and discount retailers remain active. For example, according to JLL Research, in 2025 investment volumes in U.S. retail real estate jumped ~23 % year-over-year to ~$28.5 billion, reflecting confidence in mid- and long-term fundamentals.

    This diversity helps insulate properties from shocks concentrated in any single retail vertical. The presence of more stable, necessity-based tenants can act as an anchor when cyclical uncertainty bites.

  6. The Investor Takeaway: Durability Over Momentum

    Retail isn’t likely to deliver explosive returns in the next year—but it doesn’t need to. Its strength lies in steady income and relative resilience. Despite macro uncertainty, vacancy remains low, tenant composition is more defensive, and properties generally enjoy stable cash flow profiles.

    In Q2 2025, the U.S. retail vacancy rate rose only 10 basis points to 4.3%, despite several high profile junior anchor bankruptcies.

Investors seeking lower beta in commercial real estate are increasingly favoring grocery-anchored, open-air, and necessity-based centers. These assets may not generate headline-grabbing performance, but their structural durability gives them appeal in a volatile cycle.

Yes—the shadows ahead are real. A weakening labor market, elevated consumer debt, and renewed inflation pose risks. But retail real estate enters 2026 with notable defenses: constrained supply, adaptable tenants, diversified demand, and structural income stability.

It’s not about expecting retail to escape unscathed—it’s about believing it can weather the turbulence better than most. In the coming cycle, the strength of retail will lie not in growth surprises, but in its ability to absorb pressure and hold value.

Finding the right location is the single most important decision in developing a new shopping center. Go too far ahead of demand, and you risk empty storefronts. Arrive too late, and you’re competing in an overcrowded market. The sweet spot is identifying communities where population growth, infrastructure, and retail demand are converging—creating the perfect environment for new development.

In this article, we’ll walk through how to evaluate those factors using Collin County, Texas as a case study. Within this fast-growing region, one city in particular—Anna—illustrates why certain markets are primed for new retail. From explosive population growth to proven retail absorption trends, Anna checks nearly every box for developers looking to capture the next wave of suburban expansion.

Once considered just “north of Dallas,” Collin County has become one of the fastest-growing counties in the entire United States. Its population has more than doubled since 2000, and it continues to attract new residents at a blistering pace—adding about 128 people every single day. Families are flocking here for new housing, top-rated schools, and proximity to job centers like Plano and Frisco.

All that growth is putting pressure on infrastructure, housing, and—most importantly—retail services. Shoppers need grocery stores, restaurants, gyms, and entertainment options close to home, not 20 minutes down the highway. And that’s where the opportunity comes in.

Among Collin County’s booming cities, one name keeps popping up: Anna. Tucked along US-75 just north of McKinney, Anna is evolving from a small town into a retail frontier. For developers, it represents the kind of ground-floor opportunity that’s increasingly rare in Collin County’s more built-out suburbs.

Growth You Can See From the Highway

Not long ago, Anna was a dot on the map north of McKinney. Today, it’s one of the fastest-growing cities in Texas. The numbers are jaw-dropping: the population has exploded more than 2,100% since 2000, and it’s still climbing. In fact, Anna’s headcount jumped 14.6% in just one year, taking it from a small town of 19,000 in 2019 to almost 32,000 in 2024.

And it’s not slowing down. Projections show Anna could double again by 2030, pushing toward 50,000 people. When you add that kind of residential base, you’re basically writing a playbook for new retail demand.

Retail Real Estate: Demand Is Outpacing Supply

Here’s where it gets interesting. Across the Dallas–Fort Worth metro, retail is booming in a way that’s different from the old boom-and-bust cycles. In the last year, DFW saw 2.3 million square feet of retail absorbed—that’s retailers signing leases and moving in.

That balance matters. Net absorption proves that new projects aren’t just speculative—they’re following real, measured demand. In fact, about 70% of what’s being built is pre-leased before the doors even open.

As one Chain Store Age report put it, Texas is “leading the nation in retail real estate construction.” And the JLL mid-year data backs it up: investment in retail real estate jumped 23% in the first half of 2025. In short, the market isn’t slowing down—it’s accelerating.

Checking All the Boxes: Anna, Texas

1. Location, Location, Location

Anna sits on US-75, with easy access to Dallas, McKinney, and Sherman. The planned Collin County Outer Loop will add even more connectivity, turning Anna into a key crossroads in northern Collin County. For a shopping center, that’s gold: visibility, traffic, and accessibility.

2. Room to Grow

Unlike fully built-out suburbs, Anna has space. Its planning area covers over 61 square miles, giving developers flexibility to create larger retail centers with modern formats—think open-air lifestyle space, entertainment hubs, or mixed-use projects with residential stacked on top.

3. The Right Customer Base

Thousands of new households are on the way. In the next five years alone, Anna’s trade area is expected to add 14,000 new single-family homes. These aren’t second homes or transient apartments—this is permanent, family-driven growth. And families need groceries, services, restaurants, gyms, and entertainment close to home.

Following the People (and the Money)

One of the best ways to measure whether retail makes sense is to follow where households are moving and where capital is flowing.

On the household side: Collin County as a whole is gaining roughly 128 new residents per day. That’s not a trend—it’s a tidal wave.

On the capital side: Core funds and institutional investors are piling into retail again. As JLL’s 2025 data shows, investment sales rose nearly a quarter year-over-year, proving that money managers see retail as a safe, income-producing bet.

Why Now Is the Right Time

Vacancy in DFW retail is sitting at historic lows (around 4.7%) and asking rents are hovering near record highs. That’s the market telling you one thing: there’s demand waiting to be met.

In Anna, the timing is even better. The rooftops are going up first, and the retail is catching up. That means developers who move in now aren’t competing with a dozen other centers—they’re meeting pent-up local demand.

Final Take: Collin County is Ground Zero for Growth

Retail works best when growth is real and demand is organic. That’s exactly what’s happening in Anna.

For developers and retailers, the takeaway is simple: Anna isn’t just the next suburb on the map. It’s the next great retail opportunity in North Texas.

Industry veteran brings two decades of experience to national retail portfolio.

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (July 10, 2025) — Open-air shopping center owner/manager Big V Property Group has named industry veteran Josh Binkley, P.E., LEED AP as Vice President of Construction, overseeing the planning, execution, and delivery of capital projects across the company’s growing national retail portfolio.

Josh will lead a team of project managers and tenant coordinators, ensuring construction initiatives align with Big V’s strategic goals for asset enhancement, leasing support, and long-term value creation.

From budgeting and permitting to contractor management and tenant delivery, Josh drives operational excellence and ensures projects remain on schedule, within budget, and consistent with brand and quality standards.

“We welcome Josh at a particularly apt moment in our company’s 83-year history,” said Kenton McKeehan, President and Chief Investment Officer of Big V Property Group. “As we continue to expand our holdings and our redevelopment opportunities, Josh’s experience will be invaluable.”

Josh brings over two decades of experience in commercial real estate development and construction, including ground-up shopping center development, complex redevelopments, and national tenant build-outs for both public REITs and private real estate firms including U.S. Realty Partners, Brixmor Property Group, Sunston Two Tree, Douglas Emmett, Kornwasser Shopping Centers and Simon Property Group.

“Big V is not just reinventing individual shopping centers; it also is reinventing how retail real estate tenants interact with each other and interact with their guests,” Binkley said. “I’m excited to join such a dynamic company and bring all of my experience to its incredible team.”

Josh is a licensed Professional Engineer with a B.S. in Civil Engineering from Ohio University. An active member of ICSC and he has spoken at several national events on retail construction trends and redevelopment strategy.

For media inquiries, please contact:
Debra Hazel
(201) 618-5247
debra@debrahazelcommunications.com