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Retail has held up better than many expected in the post-pandemic era, but the next 12–18 months will test how robust that strength really is. The cooling labor market, rising consumer debt, and looming tariff-driven inflation pose real risks. Yet even in that more hostile environment, retail real estate possesses structural advantages—diversified tenant demand, constrained supply, and adaptability—that should allow it to endure.

  1. A Moderating Labor Market, Not a Collapse

    The labor market is indeed decelerating. Job openings are down, and wage growth has slowed relative to last year. Still, the unemployment rate stayed at 3.8 % in August 2025, according to BLS data, which continues to provide some support to consumer income.

    In retail real estate, this means spending may soften—but it’s not collapsing. Centers anchored by essential services, grocers, and discount-oriented tenants stand to fare relatively better when discretionary budgets tighten. Unless unemployment spikes significantly, many tenants should maintain enough liquidity to service rent payments.

  2. Rising Consumer Debt, But Shifting Spending Behavior

    With credit card debt reaching $1.21 trillion as of mid-2025, marking one of the highest levels on record, consumers are clearly feeling pinched.  Still, the story isn’t about collapse—it’s about adaptation. Consumers are reprioritizing purchases: fewer luxury indulgences, more value buys, and a cautious approach to non-essential categories. That behavior favors value-format retailers, QSRs, dollar chains, and discounters—tenants that often anchor resilience in community shopping centers.

  3. Tariff-Driven Inflation Will Stretch Margins, Not Break Demand

    With the prospect of new or reinstated tariffs in 2026, inflation pressures may intensify again, especially in goods-oriented retail categories. That said, many retailers have already built buffer pricing flexibility. Retailers will pass on some of this cost to consumers, which will be a challenge to many households but also a boost to retailers that can maintain value oriented pricing, like those in Big V’s power center portfolio.

    From a property standpoint, moderate inflation can support nominal topline growth (i.e., reported sales in dollar terms) even if volumes are flat. If throughput doesn’t collapse, sales-per-square-foot can remain stable or even tick upward, preserving rent-to-sales ratios in many retail leases.

  4. Supply Discipline: The Structural Foundation

    One of retail’s protective features is supply constraint. As of Q1 2025, the national retail vacancy rate stood at just 4.2 %, up only modestly year-over-year and still near historic lows. In many markets, vacancy for community and neighborhood centers is even lower—often in the 3–5 % band according to recent reports from CBRE.

    Because speculative retail construction remains limited (often measured in single-digit millions of square feet across markets), landlords retain pricing power even if tenant demand softens. With very little competing new stock, even modest leasing activity can help stabilize occupancy and slow rent erosion.

  5. Tenant Diversity, Efficiency & Strategic Adaptation

    Retailers today are leaner and more strategic. Many operate with just-in-time inventory, agile pricing engines, and stronger online/offline integration. That helps them respond quickly to shifts in demand.

    Additionally, tenant demand is broad. Grocery, fitness, medical, pet services, wellness, and discount retailers remain active. For example, according to JLL Research, in 2025 investment volumes in U.S. retail real estate jumped ~23 % year-over-year to ~$28.5 billion, reflecting confidence in mid- and long-term fundamentals.

    This diversity helps insulate properties from shocks concentrated in any single retail vertical. The presence of more stable, necessity-based tenants can act as an anchor when cyclical uncertainty bites.

  6. The Investor Takeaway: Durability Over Momentum

    Retail isn’t likely to deliver explosive returns in the next year—but it doesn’t need to. Its strength lies in steady income and relative resilience. Despite macro uncertainty, vacancy remains low, tenant composition is more defensive, and properties generally enjoy stable cash flow profiles.

    In Q2 2025, the U.S. retail vacancy rate rose only 10 basis points to 4.3%, despite several high profile junior anchor bankruptcies.

Investors seeking lower beta in commercial real estate are increasingly favoring grocery-anchored, open-air, and necessity-based centers. These assets may not generate headline-grabbing performance, but their structural durability gives them appeal in a volatile cycle.

Yes—the shadows ahead are real. A weakening labor market, elevated consumer debt, and renewed inflation pose risks. But retail real estate enters 2026 with notable defenses: constrained supply, adaptable tenants, diversified demand, and structural income stability.

It’s not about expecting retail to escape unscathed—it’s about believing it can weather the turbulence better than most. In the coming cycle, the strength of retail will lie not in growth surprises, but in its ability to absorb pressure and hold value.

Finding the right location is the single most important decision in developing a new shopping center. Go too far ahead of demand, and you risk empty storefronts. Arrive too late, and you’re competing in an overcrowded market. The sweet spot is identifying communities where population growth, infrastructure, and retail demand are converging—creating the perfect environment for new development.

In this article, we’ll walk through how to evaluate those factors using Collin County, Texas as a case study. Within this fast-growing region, one city in particular—Anna—illustrates why certain markets are primed for new retail. From explosive population growth to proven retail absorption trends, Anna checks nearly every box for developers looking to capture the next wave of suburban expansion.

Once considered just “north of Dallas,” Collin County has become one of the fastest-growing counties in the entire United States. Its population has more than doubled since 2000, and it continues to attract new residents at a blistering pace—adding about 128 people every single day. Families are flocking here for new housing, top-rated schools, and proximity to job centers like Plano and Frisco.

All that growth is putting pressure on infrastructure, housing, and—most importantly—retail services. Shoppers need grocery stores, restaurants, gyms, and entertainment options close to home, not 20 minutes down the highway. And that’s where the opportunity comes in.

Among Collin County’s booming cities, one name keeps popping up: Anna. Tucked along US-75 just north of McKinney, Anna is evolving from a small town into a retail frontier. For developers, it represents the kind of ground-floor opportunity that’s increasingly rare in Collin County’s more built-out suburbs.

Growth You Can See From the Highway

Not long ago, Anna was a dot on the map north of McKinney. Today, it’s one of the fastest-growing cities in Texas. The numbers are jaw-dropping: the population has exploded more than 2,100% since 2000, and it’s still climbing. In fact, Anna’s headcount jumped 14.6% in just one year, taking it from a small town of 19,000 in 2019 to almost 32,000 in 2024.

And it’s not slowing down. Projections show Anna could double again by 2030, pushing toward 50,000 people. When you add that kind of residential base, you’re basically writing a playbook for new retail demand.

Retail Real Estate: Demand Is Outpacing Supply

Here’s where it gets interesting. Across the Dallas–Fort Worth metro, retail is booming in a way that’s different from the old boom-and-bust cycles. In the last year, DFW saw 2.3 million square feet of retail absorbed—that’s retailers signing leases and moving in.

That balance matters. Net absorption proves that new projects aren’t just speculative—they’re following real, measured demand. In fact, about 70% of what’s being built is pre-leased before the doors even open.

As one Chain Store Age report put it, Texas is “leading the nation in retail real estate construction.” And the JLL mid-year data backs it up: investment in retail real estate jumped 23% in the first half of 2025. In short, the market isn’t slowing down—it’s accelerating.

Checking All the Boxes: Anna, Texas

1. Location, Location, Location

Anna sits on US-75, with easy access to Dallas, McKinney, and Sherman. The planned Collin County Outer Loop will add even more connectivity, turning Anna into a key crossroads in northern Collin County. For a shopping center, that’s gold: visibility, traffic, and accessibility.

2. Room to Grow

Unlike fully built-out suburbs, Anna has space. Its planning area covers over 61 square miles, giving developers flexibility to create larger retail centers with modern formats—think open-air lifestyle space, entertainment hubs, or mixed-use projects with residential stacked on top.

3. The Right Customer Base

Thousands of new households are on the way. In the next five years alone, Anna’s trade area is expected to add 14,000 new single-family homes. These aren’t second homes or transient apartments—this is permanent, family-driven growth. And families need groceries, services, restaurants, gyms, and entertainment close to home.

Following the People (and the Money)

One of the best ways to measure whether retail makes sense is to follow where households are moving and where capital is flowing.

On the household side: Collin County as a whole is gaining roughly 128 new residents per day. That’s not a trend—it’s a tidal wave.

On the capital side: Core funds and institutional investors are piling into retail again. As JLL’s 2025 data shows, investment sales rose nearly a quarter year-over-year, proving that money managers see retail as a safe, income-producing bet.

Why Now Is the Right Time

Vacancy in DFW retail is sitting at historic lows (around 4.7%) and asking rents are hovering near record highs. That’s the market telling you one thing: there’s demand waiting to be met.

In Anna, the timing is even better. The rooftops are going up first, and the retail is catching up. That means developers who move in now aren’t competing with a dozen other centers—they’re meeting pent-up local demand.

Final Take: Collin County is Ground Zero for Growth

Retail works best when growth is real and demand is organic. That’s exactly what’s happening in Anna.

For developers and retailers, the takeaway is simple: Anna isn’t just the next suburb on the map. It’s the next great retail opportunity in North Texas.

The diverse group BJ’s Brewhouse, Hobby Lobby, Starbuck’s, T-Mobile, Skechers Outlet and more at centers including Harbison Court, above. Photo credit: Big V Property Group.

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (September 3, 2025) —Big V Property Group, a leading owner, operator, and developer of premier retail properties in high-growth Sunbelt markets, has successfully completed a $21.4 million refinancing for a diversified group of net-leased tenants, all a part of shadow anchored centers in the Big V Portfolio in the southern United States.

The properties are part of the Big V Income Fund, a nine-asset portfolio focused on generating stable, long-term cash flow through net-leased retail investments. The new financing package, secured through a regional bank, provides a sub-6% interest rate on-balance sheet, reinforcing the strength of the fund’s asset quality and tenant mix. All assets in the transaction are net-leased (NNN) to creditworthy, long-term tenants, providing predictable income and minimal landlord responsibilities.

“We’re pleased to have secured favorable terms in today’s attractive interest rate environment, which underscores the confidence our lending partners have in our assets and strategy,” said Bryan Kallenberg, Vice President of Capital Markets. This refinancing reflects the ongoing strength of the Big V Income Fund’s net lease portfolio.”

The properties are the ground leases at:

The nine properties in the Big V Income Fund are all highly visited centers, and shadowed by notable anchored tenants which include, Target, Marshalls, TJMaxx, Burlington, Ross, Ulta, and others. Big V Property Group remains focused on acquiring and managing high-performing retail centers in vibrant Sunbelt markets, characterized by robust demographics, consistent foot traffic, and long-term economic growth.

About Big V Property Group
Big V Property Group (Big V) is a family-owned leader in retail real estate with an 80-year history of serving communities and creating superior value for investors. We own, operate, and develop premier retail properties in growing and thriving Sunbelt communities across 14 states. Our 50+ neighborhood community and shopping centers are at the heart of retail districts in high-growth demographic markets, occupying a total of 9.5 million square feet. This careful selection has led to record-high occupancy rates, as our prime locations drive significant business for our tenants, enhance returns for investors, and support vibrant community activity. We are headquartered in Charlotte, NC with major offices in Murfreesboro, TN, San Antonio and Austin, TX, and Florida, NY. For further information, please visit bigv.com.

For media inquiries, please contact:
Debra Hazel
(201) 618-5247
debra@debrahazelcommunications.com

The bookseller has taken locations for its smaller format stores at Alamo Ranch, above, as well as The Avenue Murfreesboro and Southpark Meadows.

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (July 21, 2025) — The recent addition of three Barnes & Noble stores to Big V Property Group’s portfolio is not just evidence of the rebirth of the iconic bookseller, it also is a testament to the two companies’ relationship and the importance of adaptive reuse of existing space, the developer said.

All of the new Barnes & Noble stores — at Alamo Ranch in San Antonio and Southpark Meadows in Austin, both in Texas, and The Shoppes at Woodhill in Columbia, S.C. — were previously home to other retailers and were reconceived and remodeled to accommodate the retailer’s new, smaller format. Barnes & Noble also has a location at The Avenue Murfreesboro near Nashville in a lease signed prior to Big V Property Group’s acquisition of the center in 2020.

“Watching the reinvention and reinvigoration of Barnes & Noble shows the continued strength of brick-and-mortar retail, and it is now a critical component of our tenant mixes,” said Greg Ix, Executive Vice President of Leasing at Big V Property Group. “Small, independent booksellers are a vital part of retail, but there really is only one Barnes & Noble. We are happy to have leased nearly 75,000 square feet and reinvented rare vacant spaces to accommodate them and look forward to continuing our strong relationship.”

“It’s thrilling to see Barnes & Noble expanding again, with plans to open some 60 new stores nationwide in 2025,” said Julie O’Donnell, Big V Property Group Executive Director of Leasing. “Seeing a legacy brand reinvent themselves to adapt as an experience-led, traffic driver retailer, is exciting for all of our tenants, and Austin, San Antonio and Columbia, S.C. have been a perfect fit for them.”

Barnes & Noble’s 20,004-square-foot store replaces an Office Max at Southpark Meadows, home to dining, local, and regional retailers as well as Music Meadows, an outdoor communal area that hosts a variety of events all year long. Other anchors are Walmart, Super Target, Petsmart, Ulta Beauty, Old Navy, JCPenny, Marshalls, Hobby Lobby, Ross, Best Buy and HomeGoods. The center is located on Interstate 35, Austin’s primary North-South thoroughfare.

One of the largest and most prominent open-air centers in San Antonio, Alamo Ranch’s 900,000 square feet are anchored by Best Buy, Dick’s, Ross Dress for Less, Marshalls, Michael’s, Ulta, PetSmart, Super Target, Lowe’s, and JCPenney. Barnes & Noble’s 17,996 square feet also replaces an Office Max at the center, located on 1604, one of the city’s busiest vehicular arteries.

Big V Property Group re-leased a 25,000-square-foot former Bed Bath & Beyond at The Shoppes at Woodhill to Barnes & Noble prior to selling the center in December 2024.

“We’re proud of our flexibility to help major tenants find new locations in thriving markets such as Austin and San Antonio,” said Pat Kelly, Vice President of Leasing. “But Barnes & Noble deserves serious credit for developing a smaller, community-centric prototype that allows it to take locations of 20,000 square feet or so and serve new markets. It’s a tribute to smart retailing.”

All three stores are now open.

About Big V Property Group
Big V Property Group (Big V) is a family-owned leader in retail real estate with an 80-year history of serving communities and creating superior value for investors. We own, operate, and develop premier retail properties in growing and thriving Sunbelt communities across 14 states. Our 50+ neighborhood community and shopping centers are at the heart of retail districts in high-growth demographic markets, occupying a total of 9.5 million square feet. This careful selection has led to record-high occupancy rates, as our prime locations drive significant business for our tenants, enhance returns for investors, and support vibrant community activity. We are headquartered in Charlotte, NC with major offices in Murfreesboro, TN, San Antonio and Austin, TX, and Florida, NY. For further information, please visit bigv.com.

For media inquiries, please contact:
Debra Hazel
(201) 618-5247
debra@debrahazelcommunications.com

I grew up in the family business, one of four children with a father running a successful supermarket company, which was started by my grandfather. We practically lived at the stores, sometimes running around and playing, and other times working. When my brother was 10, he was already slicing cold cuts in the deli! One day while I was in high school, I sat in my Dad’s office, and noticed two empty offices of senior level executives who had just been removed from the company. My father used that moment to teach me one of my most important business lessons, which I summarize in the phrase, the power you keep.

The lesson.

Executives lose their positions and discover a brutal truth: for some, the phone stops ringing, and a new position is hard to discover. Yet, there are others who thrive and grow after experiencing a similar loss of position. There can be many reasons for the two paths, but there is one very controllable reason: Understanding the difference between influence  derived from the position you hold within the organization, and influence derived from one’s personal network and reputation. As my father explained that day, one executive had confused organizational influence with personal influence, while the other had a balanced understanding. He called it recognizing personal power as compared to organizational power.

Though management scholars have distinguished between personal and organizational power since the 1950s, many leaders still confuse borrowed authority bestowed through an organization with influence they’ve earned themselves. The kind of power that matters most isn’t printed on your business card—it’s built through relationships that transcend one’s title.

Walk into any corporate Monday morning meeting, whether in person or virtual, and you’ll see executives’ organizational authority on display—pressing for growth, awarding contracts, pushing projects through the investment committee, controlling budgets and directing teams. What some of those executives might mistakenly believe is that their power is derived solely from their personal influence. They believe their ability to command attention and get results comes from personal respect or from earned professional capital.

Here’s what these leaders miss: organizational power is borrowed, not owned. It belongs to the position, not the person. If you’re not balancing organizational power with high quality relationships of trust and understanding throughout your career, you will be in for a hard landing.

As I mentioned above, the first executive who left the company learned this lesson painfully. During his tenure, he had his hand in large development projects for our company, decided where to buy land, and determined which developers and landlords would win lucrative deals. He had a lot of organizational authority and often wielded it carelessly. He was known to not return calls, to treat vendors poorly, and to dismiss those he deemed unimportant.

When he eventually left, his phone instantly stopped ringing. Those he’d ignored now ignored him. The man who once commanded boardrooms struggled to find new employment. He never was  able to attain a position anywhere close to the one he had with us and eventually finished his career as a solo residential real estate agent, struggling for listings. He discovered late in his career that he’d possessed only organizational power—and when the organization moved on, so did everyone else.

At our company, we strive to hire a team distinguished by extensive industry expertise and who are deeply committed to ethics and integrity, upholding a culture where our word is our bond, forward thinking and proactive decision-making are essential, and family matters. Taken together, we believe our values foster vocational relationship building and go a long way to balancing personal and organizational power for our team members.

We don’t always get it right.

In the past, we have made senior hires and promotion decisions with the assumption that the individuals had developed personal influence, and had personal integrity, believing in our core values. When those assumptions proved wrong, and when those individuals left the organization, they experienced an outcome similar to my father’s example above; they struggled and generally failed to attain a similar position of leadership within the industry. To improve our own hiring, we began to vet much more deeply our candidates’ reputations and ask more probing questions about the depths of their networks, the strength of their professional relationships and their view of our core values. These tests help ensure our future team members have the right balance.

True personal power comes from authentic relationships built over time. My grandfather, who started our company, understood this intuitively. When a young bond broker cold-called him decades ago, launching immediately into a sales pitch, my grandfather stopped him. “Tell me about yourself first,” he said. “What’s happening in your life? How’s your family?”

That broker was forced off script, and as a result of establishing a personal relationship with my grandfather, he maintained a relationship with our family for over fifty years. This broker shared with me recently that he viewed this as a life lesson, and applied it to all of his relationships going forward. He learned that business isn’t just about transactions—it’s about people choosing to work together because they value each other beyond any one deal.

The solution isn’t complicated, but it requires intention. Before discussing the next deal, ask about someone’s recent vacation. Remember their children’s names. Follow up on personal challenges they’ve mentioned. Build relationships that transcend your current title.

This is what the second executive did. Returning to my father’s story…the other executive, after being removed from the company, experienced a different outcome. Because he had cultivated and grew his personal influence, when he left the company he quickly secured a better position than he had at my father’s supermarket company. It was a great outcome for him, and to this day we still do business with him and his team.

The vocabulary has changed since the 1950s when this concept first surfaced, but the principle endures. Whether you’re a C-suite executive, entrepreneur, or aspiring leader, ask yourself: if I lost my role or title tomorrow, who would still take my call? The answer reveals whether you’ve built personal power or merely borrowed organizational authority.  Don’t be the individual who discovers too late that you only have organization power.

The relationships you cultivate matter more than the positions you hold.