Our company’s core values put a focus on relationships—not transactions, so its partnerships with tenants, investors, and communities strengthen over decades and across cycles. Ask yourself: If I lost my title tomorrow, who would still take my call? The answer reveals whether you’ve earned personal influence or simply relied on positional authority. In the end, it’s the relationships you build—not the role you hold—that truly matter.
Why Now Might Be the Best Time in Years to Build a Shopping Center
By: Kenton McKeehan and Mike Jordan
Despite high interest rates, rising construction costs, and frequent news of store closures, now may be an ideal time to build a shopping center. Retail vacancy rates are near historic lows, rents are increasing, and demand for quality retail space exceeds supply. For developers with a strong strategy and tenant mix, conditions are particularly favorable for new retail development. Let’s learn why.
Retail sales in May were up 5% compared to last year, though electronics and department stores continued to show declines Read More >>
The Conference Board sees a significant slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year, but stopped short of predicting a recession Read More >>
Consumers are more likely to cut back on discretionary spending while keeping pace with groceries Read More >>
July sales events such as Amazon’s Prime Day will generate $24 billion according to a recent report from Adobe Read More >>
The Checkout Lane
Source: Retail Dive, Chain Store Age, Progressive Grocer
Amazon is spending $4 billion to expand its delivery network to rural America. The company hopes to offer same and next day delivery services to 4,000 rural communities by the end of 2025.
At Home filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last month in an effort to clean up a debt-laden balance sheet and restructure ahead of anticipated headwinds from tariffs and inflation. As part of the filing, At Home has announced 26 store closings along with a refinancing deal worth $600 million.
Big 5 Sporting Goods is being taken private in a transaction worth $112 million. The west coast based sporting goods retailer will now be partnered with Worldwide Golf and Capitol Hill Group as it attempts to re-energize its growth amid increasing competition.
Chuck E Cheese has launched a new adult-focused arcade brand called Chuck’s Arcade in 10 malls across the country. Each location is unique and features a mix of contemporary and classic arcade games. The company hopes to play on the nostalgia of the generation that grew up in the 80s and 90s playing games at venues like Chuck E Cheese. The Kansas City location will serve as a tribute to the history of the brand, as well as offering a full menu.
Gong Cha, which bills itself as the largest bubble tea chain in the world, has announced plans to open 250 additional locations by 2028, more than doubling its current footprint. Among the new locations will be Gong Cha’s first stores in Arizona, thanks to a new multi-unit franchise agreement also announced this month.
As Kirkland’s transforms itself into a holding company called The Brand House Collective that will incorporate Bed Bath & Beyond, Overstock, and Buy Buy Baby; the company brought in Andrea Curtois as CFO, following her stint in the same role at Francesca’s. The conglomeration is set to become official during a vote on July 24th at Kirkland’s annual investors meeting.
Kroger announced plans to close up to 60 stores by the end of 2026. The closings will happen across all geographies and divisions. While the closings represent a small portion of the over 2,700 stores Kroger operates today, the company hopes that by cutting costs they can move towards profitability in digital sales, which were up 15% in the first quarter.
Sportsman’s Warehouse is hoping to avoid hitting customers with higher tariff-induced prices by buying holiday and hunting season inventory earlier this year, before the surcharges go into effect. CFO Jeff White commented that the $20 million investment carries a lower risk as it is focused on its highest turning products.
Tailored Brands, the parent company of Men’s Wearhouse, Jos. A Bank, and K&G Fashions, has named John Tighe, the former Chief Merchandising Officer of JCPenney as its new CEO. Tighe joined Tailored in 2021, and most recently held the title of President. The company also announced a line of clothing called American Bespoke, with all products being produced at a factory in Massachusetts.
Ulta is going across the pond with its acquisition of UK-based beauty retailer Space NK. Though terms of the deal were not disclosed, Ulta paid for the deal with cash on hand and plans to leave the current management team in place. Space NK currently operates 83 stores in the UK and Ireland.
The Big View
Jessica Ramirez and Allison Collins are two of the smartest people I know in retail and they’ve recently formed The Consumer Collective, an advisory firm that helps companies in the fashion, beauty, sports, and wellness spaces better understand consumer trends and behavior. They’ve launched their own newsletter via Substack called Inside the Collective, and it has instantly become one of my must reads. Check out their page and sign up here >>
As private label merchandise continues to gain acceptance with price-conscious consumers, one company is fighting back. Lululemon announced a lawsuit against Costco for its line of “knockoff” athleisure wear that the company said is intended to mislead consumers into thinking the Kirkland alternatives are made by the same manufacturer. Whether this is a true threat to their business, or merely a diversion as the company is reeling from declining sales remains to be seen. Read more here from Daphne Howland at Retail Dive >>
Video of the Month: As recently as 2020, Kohl’s was considered one of the great retail success stories of the past few decades; by bringing department store selection to highly trafficked open-air shopping centers, Kohl’s was able to accelerate the trend away from enclosed malls. However, the company has seen significant headwinds the last few years due to inventory problems, leadership turnover, activist investors, increased competition from off-price retail, and an omnichannel strategy that lagged competitors like Walmart and Target. Can Kohl’s turn things around and become relevant to American shoppers again, or are they headed toward the retail graveyard? Find out more about their past, present, and future in this video >>
By the Numbers
Shopping Center Market Asking Rent Per SF Across The U.S.
Source: CoStar Group | Last 12 Months
From the Research Desk
The Temptations 1972 hit “Papa Was a Rolling Stone” taught us that for some folks home is where you lay your hat. But how many people really lay their hat in the same place their whole lives? A 2023 survey conducted by All Star Home found that 30% of people live in a different state where they grew up, while 41% live in the same town or county where they were raised, the remainder moved further away within the same state, while a small number of people (2%) have left the country.
But while domestic migration stats attract a lot of attention and headlines, looking at these trends historically, Americans are less mobile than they’ve ever been before. Due to dual income households, remote work, and housing affordability; we are a much less mobile society than ever before. In 1976, between 35-40% of young adults moved within the past year, while that number was less than 25% just before the pandemic.
In a sort of ironic twist, the fact less people are moving makes the attention on those who do move and what regions they move to more focused. After all, if population growth is distributed more unevenly than in the past, growing markets will be in short supply.
This has shaped conventional wisdom about real estate investing over the past few decades with most experts looking to the Sun Belt or “Smile” states (the Sun Belt plus the Northwest and Mid-Atlantic) as places where people are increasingly moving to in large part due to housing affordability. However, no trend lasts forever and as Sun Belt markets have grown rapidly in this century, they are starting to embrace the same restrictive growth policies that made so many coastal destinations too expensive.
Whether it’s NIMBY tendencies that transcend geography and political persuasion or simply reaching the limit of how far a given city can sprawl beyond its urban core without commensurate investments in infrastructure and public transit, the cost of housing and the relative increase in supply in cities like Phoenix and Atlanta have declined to levels on par with hyper expensive coastal markets and even low demand markets such as Detroit. In 2000, Phoenix was adding an additional 4% worth of housing stock per year, which has led to a 58% population growth in this century, however by 2023, the percentage of new housing being added in Phoenix was less than 1%, which has caused prices to skyrocket.
So, if the Sun Belt is no longer a pressure relief valve for the exploding cost of housing in more established markets, where is the next horizon of growth? Increasingly, people are now looking to tertiary markets (roughly defined as metro areas below 500,000 people) to find growth opportunities. Recent figures published by Oxford Economics and the. US Bureau of Economic Analysis show that tertiary markets perform better on GDP growth, income growth, and job growth compared to large markets like Los Angeles.
As a data-driven real estate investor in search of higher yields and growth potential, small markets represent a unique opportunity to find hidden gems in places like Provo, Utah; Boise, Idaho; and Fayetteville, Arkansas to name but a few. By establishing these beachheads ahead of institutional capital, you’ve put yourself in a position to be in front of trends before they become conventional wisdom. What the towns listed above as well as others that scored well in my recent analysis is a diversified, highly educated, younger population with economic opportunities being spun off from a major university, hospital system, or government office.
Song of the Month: The music world lost one of the greatest artists of the 20th century last month with the passing of Brian Wilson, the founder and creative force behind the Beach Boys. Brian and his brothers emerged from Hawthorn, California in the early 60s singing of sun, surf, cars, and girls in an embodiment of the dream of Midcentury America. However, Brian’s ear for complex arrangements, melodic structure, and sublime harmonies would take the group in a new direction with the 1966 album Pet Sounds, which would be cited by Paul McCartney as the inspiration for The Beatles’ Sgt Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band in the following year. Brian then responded with “Good Vibrations” – a “teenage symphony to God” – that went on to be one of the Beach Boys’ most beloved hits. Smile, the follow-up to Pet Sounds, would remain unreleased for nearly 50 years as Brian battled mental illness and music business politics while the Beach Boys recorded a string of well-loved, but commercially disappointing albums through the 70s. However, Brian’s creative and personal renaissance in the 2000s and centered around the much delayed release of Smile put a redemptive ending to a brilliant career otherwise marked by tragedy. Listen to “Good Vibrations” here >>
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