Sources: Retail Dive, Chain Store Age, Creditntell, QSR Magazine

In the 1970s, President Gerald Ford inherited a shaky US economy that saw inflation spike to over 12% in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis. His much ballyhooed response was a public relations campaign reminiscent of the Great Depression and World War 2 eras: Whip Inflation Now. Citizens were asked to sign a pledge vowing to reduce their energy consumption and grow their own food. In exchange, people received a free “WIN” button to show their support. Other WIN merchandise was soon produced including earrings, footballs, duffle bags, sweaters, and more. Alan Greenspan called the program “unbelievably stupid” and skeptics would wear their WIN pins upside down, explaining that NIM stood for “Need Immediate Money” or “No Immediate Miracles.”

On the consumer front, Hamburger Helper marketed its product as “9 delicious ways to fight inflation” and margarine was erroneously promoted as a “healthy alternative” to butter when in fact, it was just cheaper to make. Food co-ops, antique speculation, baseball card collecting, powdered milk, and “freezer beef” all gained traction as consumers tried to stretch their dollars further, often creating bubble market crashes of their own.

Paul Volcker would take over the Fed during both the Carter and Reagan years and with his command of monetary policy and targeted interest rate increases, Volcker has been widely credited with getting inflation under control by the start of Reagan’s second term, no catchy slogans or “WIN gardens” needed. What was needed from the American people was patience as this battle took the better part of the decade, while the employment market went through serious upheaval in the early 80s. It was the most painful economic time in American history since the Great Depression.

Flash forward to the 2020s and over the summer, after over a year of inflation declines and with the Fed’s 2% target well within reach, the CPI number began to tick upwards again from a low of 3.0% in June to 3.7% in August (it remains notable that “core inflation” which strips out food & energy has continued to decline all year, reaching 4.3% in August). Today’s situation is in some ways very much unlike what we saw in the 1970s. For one thing, inflation rates of 3-5%, while not economically ideal are far easier to stomach than the 12% of the Ford years. Interest rates remain half of what they were in the early 80s and the job market has proven especially resilient as demographic trends and skills shortages has meant there are plenty of openings and higher wages for those willing to work.

So, is it time to break out our WIN pins and buy our meat from wholesalers again? I’m not sure I’d go that far yet. The Fed’s policies are having their intended impact, but with the low hanging fruit of the economic recovery largely picked from the tree, its important to remember the patience it took to get us to the good times in the past because this fight is not over yet.

Mike Jordan